Offense is nice in the modern NFL, but that doesn’t mean defense isn’t relevant at all. Because while attack has a greater effect on overall team performance — and is more consistent year after year — than defense, you still have to put up some resistance to actually win football games.
For that reason, we’re going to rank league defenses now that the player acquisition portion of the off-season is largely over. Instead of going through every team from 32-1 on this side of the ball like we did in the attackwe’re going to group the teams by how likely they are to finish the year in the league’s top 10 defenses.
Without a doubt…
Very unlikely
Atlanta Falcons, Detroit Lions, Houston Texans, Jacksonville Jaguars, New York Giants, New York Jets, Seattle Seahawks
None of these teams finished in the top half of the league in EPA per play or Football Outsiders’ DVOA last season. Only the Seahawks, Giants, Texans, and Falcons finished above average in any of the yards per play (Seattle, Giants), points per drive (Seattle), opponent turnover (Giants, Houston, Atlanta), and percentage of opponents drives finished in a touchdown or field goal (Seattle). None of them scored better than 10th in any of those categories.
The most notable talent acquisitions for each of these teams are rookies: Travon Walker in Jacksonville, Aidan Hutchinson in Detroit, and Sauce Gardner and Kayvon Thibodeaux in New York. Even if those players contribute at a high level right away, it seems unlikely that they will make the difference between where these teams were and the top 10 in the NFL. It’s possible some of these teams will work their way to slightly below average in defense rather than terrible, but even above average can go a bit far.
Somewhat unlikely
Carolina Panthers, Chicago Bears, Kansas City Chiefs, Tennessee Titans
The Panthers started defensively last season, but slowed down in the second half of the season. They lost to Haason Reddick in free agency and have no ready-made replacement. Their secondary should be a strength, but it’s hard to see the front end being good enough to push them into the top 10. Chicago was a defensive disaster last season, and while new head coach Matt Eberflus and a few early rosters should help, trade from Khalil Mack robs the Bears of their best pass-rusher.
Kansas City used four of the first five draft picks on the defensive side of the ball, so maybe we’re being a little unfriendly to the Chiefs here, but even while they forced a ton of sales last season, they still finished outside the top 20 in EPA per game, DVOA, yards per game and points per ride. That is a lot to make up for. Tennessee had an above average defense last season, but alongside Jeffery Simmons and Kevin Byard, there just isn’t enough high-level talent to see them crash into the top 10.
Possibly
Arizona Cardinals, Cincinnati Bengals, Cleveland Browns, Green Bay Packers, Los Angeles Chargers, Las Vegas Raiders, Minnesota Vikings, Philadelphia Eagles, Washington Commanders
This is the largest group of teams, and also the one with the most results.
Arizona finished in the top 10 in both EPA per game and DVOA last season, but got much better-than-expected performances from some of its players in high school and doesn’t have much pass rush to speak of. But if that secondary holds up and the flexible linebackers the team has drafted in recent years make strides forward, the Cardinals could keep their place there. The Bengals also did better than expected last season and thankfully did not rest on their laurels when it came to recruiting talent. They added three draft picks to a defensive backfield that played over his head last year and needed an infusion of more talent.
We were pretty high up in Cleveland’s defense heading into last season, only the unity was a bit of a let down. They probably need to add more pass-rush juice across Myles Garrett, but he and Denzel Ward are such cuties that they could take this unit to greater heights this year. Green Bay suffered from the weight of injuries last season and should be healthier this year, but it will be interesting to see Joe Barry make another pass rush all year long without Za’Darius Smith. That said, adding Devonte Wyatt and Quay Walker to the two most questionable units in defense should be a big help.
The Chargers had a lot of talent in defense last year, but the outfit was undermined by notable holes in a few spots. Thankfully, Tom Telesco went shopping for a few of Brandon Staley’s favorites like Sebastian Joseph-Day and Morgan Fox, while also adding Mack, JC Jackson, Austin Johnson, and Bryce Callahan. There is a lot of benefit to this group. The Raiders who add Chandler Jones against Maxx Crosby give them one of the league’s most formidable pass-rush duos, and while there are questions elsewhere, that could set the stage for a strong defense if everything works out under Patrick Graham.
We originally had Minnesota in the previous level, but with Danielle Hunter back in the fold, plus Lewis Cine and Andrew Booth on board…maybe there’s a universe where it all works, even if the odds of that happening without Mike Zimmer at the the rudder seems quite low. The Eagles improved their secondary by adding James Bradberry this week, and did the same to their run defense by drafting Jordan Davis and Nakobe Dean. However, the defense was so bad last year that it felt too aggressive for them to bump into the “probable” top-10. Washington’s defense was one of the most disappointing in the NFL last season, and with Chase Young recovering from an ACL tear, it may be difficult to reach the heights some had envisioned for them a year ago. But if the pass rush is as good as hoped for last season, this tiering might be too low.
Somewhat likely
Baltimore Ravens, Dallas Cowboys, Denver Broncos, Indianapolis Colts, Miami Dolphins, New England Patriots, Pittsburgh Steelers, San Francisco 49ers, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Baltimore’s defense collapsed last season with injury, but there were some strong underlying stats pointing to a rebound. For example, the Ravens finished third in yards allowed per game and eighth in the proportion of opponents finishing in a score. With better health, plus Marcus Williams and Kyle Hamilton on board, they should be back in or around the top 10. Dallas was buoyed by hugely unsustainable sales last season, but with Dan Quinn bringing Micah Parsons into favorable matchups, a healthier season from Demarcus Lawrence, full years from Jayron Kearse and Malik Hooker, further development of the team’s young interior defenders , and even a season with half as many picks as Trevon Diggs had a year ago, the Cowboys should be able to stave off regression enough to finish in the back half of the top 10, or just outside it.
Denver stole Randy Gregory away from the Cowboys, still has a very good secondary and brought in Ejiro Evero to call the defense. Having finished in or around the top 10 in most efficiency stats last season, things are looking pretty good on this side of the ball. The Colts lost Eberflus to the Bears, but Gus Bradley should be able to do his Cover-3, rush-the-passer-with-the-front-four-thing after the team added Stephon Gilmore and Yannick Ngakoue to a group already deep and talented. Brian Flores is no longer in Miami to call the defense, but there’s still a lot of fun about the Dolphins, starting with Xavien Howard, Byron Jones and Jevon Holland at the back. With Jaelan Phillips and Emmanuel Ogbah up front, there’s enough pass-rush juice for Josh Boyer to keep something of what Flores has been doing over the past few seasons.
The only reason New England is here, and not in the next group, is that the Patriots let Jackson walk without actually replacing him. We’ve seen Bill Belichick use his magic after losing top flight corners before, including last year when the team traded Gilmore to Carolina. The 49ers continue to chase the passer with the best of them, continue to play strong from unannounced cornerbacks, and still have a very strong center group in cover. With Arik Armstead playing in from the jump, this should be a more consistent unit this season.
The Steelers and Bucs both have top talent and there is no doubt that they have above average defense. Only Todd Bowles adding head coach responsibilities and the absence of Jason Pierre-Paul kept Tampa out of the top group, while age and injury issues are the culprit for Pittsburgh. Still, two excellent defenses that should be among the best.
Probably
Buffalo Bills, Los Angeles Rams, New Orleans Saints
Buffalo finished first in DVOA, EPA per play, yards per play and points per drive last season, adding von Miller to a deep group of edge rushers. Even with Tre’Davious White possibly missing part of the season to recover his ACL tear, the Bills seem to be close to having a top defense. The Rams have Aaron Donald and Jalen Ramsey, and Raheem Morris will continue to innovate based on the principles Brandon Staley installed a few years ago. In New Orleans, Dennis Allen will be given more responsibility as head coach, just as Tampa has done with Bowles, but the Saints have a more reliable defensive backfield than their division rivals, thanks to the addition of Tyrann Mathieu to rebound after the loss of Marcus Williams.
#NFL #Defense #Ranking #Rams #Bills #Saints #units #crack #top
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