Big hype prospects: Gorman, Liberatore, Thomas, Lewis, Rodriguez

the cardinals make waves on the big prospect front, and we’re here to cover it.

Five big hype prospects

Nolan Gorman, 22, 2B/3B, STL (AAA)
147 PA, 15 HR, 3 SB, .308/.367/.677

Once the move is official, the Cardinals will become the first team to put two Nolans on the list at once (I assume). Baseball has come a long way since its origins. From 1878 to 1885, the sport featured a player known as The only Nolan†

Trivia aside, Gorman will be the latest top contender to make his debut. Power has always been his calling card, although this is the first season he’s been playing in games at such a breakneck pace. It has a price. He had a 34 percent strikeout rate and he didn’t run very often (8.2 percent walk rate). In my experience, prospects with questionable discipline tend to have fleeting debuts. Opponents sometimes quickly take advantage of the player’s weaknesses, forcing the batter to adapt immediately. Other times, opponents accidentally wander into the batter’s nitro zone, leading to an explosive debut. The dip comes later. Players with these plate discipline markings always collapse at some point. We’ll soon see if Gorman enters the competition with a frenzy, a whimper, or something in between.

Matthew Liberatore, 22, SP, STL (AAA)
40 IP, 10.35K/9, 2.70 BB/9, 3.83 ERA

I was wondering which of Liberatore or Zack Thompson would be the first to debut. We now have our answer. Originally acquired in the Randy Arozarena trade, Liberatore was considered by many to be the best player in the trade at the time. Arozarena’s early career heroism led us to rethink our take on what appeared to be a rare misstep for the Rays, but Liberatore is now ready to help complete the analysis.

As an audience, we’ve learned a lot about pitching since that trade, and new findings help put the deal into context. While the southpaw does well on a pitch-by-pitch basis – his fastball is in the mid-90s, his curve is well-shaped and his slider is a groundbreaking offering – the repertoire as a whole doesn’t quite match. His fastball is built to work low in the zone so he doesn’t tunnel with his curve. It also plays out for other reasons – in short, some hitters can identify it out of hand. There’s still plenty here for a solid big-league pitcher, the profile just isn’t as exciting as it once was.

Alek Thomas, 22, OF, ARI (MLB)
39 PA, 2 HR, .316/.333/.553

Thomas gets off to a smashing start. As expected, he hits average and even has a few home runs. Beneath the surface are a few modest reasons for concern. He is known for his plate discipline, but his 2.6 percent walk and 20.5 percent strikeout percentages are both worse than many had hoped. His swing rates on fields inside and outside the zone are about the average for the competition. As an industry, we expected him to be more critical. Thomas is a ground oriented batter who uses all fields. The profile remains that of a leadoff hitter who can go 15/15 while setting a high batting average and on-base percentage.

Royce Lewis, 23, SS, MIN (AAA)
(MLB) 40 PA, 2 HR, .308 / .325 / .564

Lewis had a great debut for the Twins. He was neither overmatched nor out of his element. The top candidate showed that he belonged with flashy ability, a high contact percentage and sufficient plate discipline. His battering aggressiveness often worked against him in the lower minors, but Lewis has worked to improve. He posted a 15.3 percent running speed in Triple-A. Although his 2.5 percent running speed in the majors indicates that he was swinging freely, his hitting speeds on in- and out-zone fields were about the league average. His two home runs were supported by showy exit speeds. He reached a maximum of 114 mph, on par with Mike Forel (114.4), Julio Rodriguez (114), and Bryce Harper (113.8), among others.

For now, he returns to Triple-A in deference to Carlos Correa† The move raised some eyebrows (mine included) due to Joseph Miranda (.094/.143/.189) and Gio Urshela (.229/.293/.330). After showing his bat belongs, Lewis will likely prepare to return to a new position in the coming weeks. In his first game back with Triple-A, he was 3-for-3 with a homerun and a stolen base.

Grayson Rodriguez, 22, SP, BALL (AAA)
37.1 IP, 13.74 K/9, 3.13 BB/9, 2.65 ERA

While we were looking elsewhere, Rodriguez may have completed the final step in his ascent to the Majors. On Tuesday, he faced 23 batters while pitching 5.1 innings. He had faced 19 batters in his previous four starts. He held the Charlotte Knights scoreless on three hits, three walks and 11 strikeouts. If there’s any concern for the right-handed change-up artist, it’s that he’s gotten 4.74 BB/9 over his last four starts. We’re approaching a point in the season where teams may be tempted to push a debut past the vague Super Two deadline. That would probably take at least another full month in the minors.

Five More

Adley Rutschman (24): Rutschman watch continues unabated. He has passed the rehabilitation hurdles set before him. Last week, he hit .261/.370/.522 with two homeruns, three walks and one strikeout. His debut could come next week, possibly even this weekend.

C.J. Abrams (21): After skipping Triple-A to earn a spot on the Opening Day roster, Abrams appeared to be outnumbered in 65 appearances in the major league. As an option for the minors, he hits .216/.293/.459 with three home runs and three steals in 41 Triple-A at bats. Despite the low average and the OBP, the results are modestly encouraging.

Marco Luciano (20): Last season, Luciano’s plate approach deteriorated after a promotion to High-A. He repeats the level and returns to his usual way of doing things, hitting .300/.366/.530 ​​with six home runs in 112 at bats. He has hit especially well in his last 60 at bats. He’s leaning toward a promotion to Double-A.

Chase Silseth (22): Silseth, who also appeared here last week, made a strong debut. It recorded a swinging stroke rate of 11.1 percent, mainly thanks to its widely used splitter. His fastball and slider also looked like plus offers.

Corbin Carroll (21): Last week, Carroll hit .435/.552/1.043 with three homeruns, two triples, a double and two stolen bases. He’s late for a promotion to Triple-A. If that goes well, we could see him in the Majors later this season.

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