Much of the US, from California to Texas to the Midwest, is at risk of blackouts and unreliable power this summer as extreme heat and drought affect the electrical grid, a major regulator said Wednesday.
in an annual rating of grid conditions, the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC), a non-profit organization that monitors the nation’s electrical grids, said that the grid serving much of the Midwest is at “high risk” of energy emergencies this summer. Meanwhile, power grids that bring power to the West and Texas can also pose serious problems.
“It’s a pretty sobering report and it’s clear that the risks are expanding,” said John Moura, director at NERC, told reporters in a press conference. “I definitely think this is our most cautionary tale here.”
Many of the most serious problems will arise in a mid-region of the country that gets its power from what is known as the Midcontinent Independent System Operator, which operates the network in 15 states and parts of Canada. Baseline power demand in this region has risen again since the pandemic, the assessment finds, but extreme temperatures could push that demand even further, creating “a high risk of energy emergencies during peak summer conditions.” Some of the nuclear, gas, and coal plants owned by another grid operator in the region, the Southwest Power Pool, use the Missouri River to cool their generators. Droughts in the Missouri River basin, the assessment found, could also affect the output of those power plants.
Drought in the West will also put pressure on the grid in that region as hydroelectric power is threatened by devastatingly dry conditions† Earlier this month, federal officials said they would? taking unprecedented steps to maintain water levels in Lake Powell, whose dam supplies electricity to 5.8 million homes in the West, after a disappointing snowpack year and persistent high temperatures that continue to choke the West. While California and other western states should have enough power to meet most of their requirements, the report finds that extreme drought and heat can lead to emergencies. unrestrained forest fires, which caused early season damage in New Mexico, can also pose unique hazards, as smoke and mist from wildfires can obscure sunlight and make solar panels less efficient. Fires can also short out connectors and destroy other equipment.
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Texas is no stranger to power issues: the devastating failure of its network (known as ERCOT) in February 2021 hundreds deadand the barely sustained during the heat of last summer. This summer, the NERC report found that more solar and wind supply on the Texas power grid – the same renewable resources that Republican lawmakers have repeatedly scapegoated and aggressive legislation against— improved grid capacity to meet increased demand. However, the well-documented problems with ERCOT persist and could get worse this summer with extreme temperatures, especially if a hot day isn’t very windy either and wind production is diminishing.
During a press conference on the report, an ERCOT representative assured reporters that the network would be OK by the summer, but experts questioned that rosy outlook.
“To me it’s kind of like a dice that we could have serious problems this summer, a rough estimate of a 1 in 6 chance,” Daniel Cohan, an associate professor of environmental engineering at Rice University, told me. E&E News† “And as the climate continues to warm, we will continue to load the dice with more extreme weather options.”
One of the key strategies for avoiding even more extreme weather in the future is something electricity grids across the country are already doing: transitioning from fossil fuels to renewable energy sources. But the energy transition, NERC said, also poses its own problems. Dirty plants are going offline faster than renewables can come online, meaning the remaining gas and coal plants will have to run faster. Supply chain problems are also hampering some solar projects and transmission lines, while some of the remaining coal plants on the grid are having trouble getting enough fuel due to supply problems.
Regardless of how quickly the US is moving away from dirty energy, one thing is clear: extreme weather is now the new normal, thanks to climate change.
“‘Extreme’ does not mean ‘rare'”, Moura told reporters of the upcoming weather. “We know that these conditions are not rare.”
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